Archive for June, 2010

Evaluating Options Trading Using Delta

 

Any time trading options for stock (or futures for commodities including forex), one of the key risk analysis resources available is Delta. This sole way of measuring can have an important affect how well you have done relating to risk and return.

Evaluating Prospective Returns and Measuring Risk

In brief, Delta tells us two things. The very first is how much, at that given price, every $1 upward move will impact the cost of the actual option contact. For example, if the option in question has a Delta of 0.33, then when the underlying asset increases by $1.00, the price of the option should rise $0.33. This allows us to determine the return value of an alternative. The lower the Delta, the lower our return will be. The aim is to find options that are trading at as high a delta as feasible, although this generally means considering deep in-the-money options as opposed to less costly, out-of-the-money options.

The second crucial piece of info Delta shows us any time trading options is what amount of the gains/losses we control. For example, at a Delta of 0.33, we control 33 units of the underlying asset. How this helps us is to work out how we can hedge our risk. If we own two options with a delta of 0.33, we might be able to offset our risk by purchasing or owning the quantity of the underlying asset. In this instance, if we wrote 2 naked Call options Stock XYZ, to cancel out the risk of having to produce the asset, we should own 66 shares of XYZ.

Considerations That Impact Delta

Of course, as the amount of the asset persists to move in a given direction, the Delta will alter (we can measure how much of an impact this will have through Gamma). Also, as time passes the time premium of the alternative will begin to erode (and thereby affect Theta, another measurement). This means that, the Delta of an alternative is never at standstill.

Using Delta when trading options is typically the starting position for anyone who is looking at an options position in an asset. To reiterate, the lower the delta, the low the possibility return/risk. The higher the delta, the higher the price. Lots of people trading options can survive simply by understanding how Delta works, although there are other “Greeks” that prove invaluable in this arena.

Summary – Optimal Delta-Based Trades

For investors trading alternatives on the buy side the only way to enjoy a higher Delta and thereby control a higher percentage of the gains, is to purchase deep in-the-money options. There are still benefits to this. For example, where a stock is trading at $100, having control of 0.998 (virtually 1) of the returns/losses might mean buying the $70 options. As opposed to having to think of the full $100, you will develop $30 plus a small premium.

 

With regard to investors on the writing side, selling higher delta options will almost certainly lead to the position being filled at expiry. If your naked on a deal, this becomes problematic. If your covered, the position will liquidate and you will liquidate at less than the market price. Ideally, the alternative premium would compensate for this, but this is not forever the situation.

 

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Comparing Out-Of-THE-Money With In-THE-Money Options

 

Option trading is a great way to improve your potential returns in the stock exchange. But even with options there is room for risky trades and less risky trades.

If you want to be a more conservative option buyer you can always buy in the money stock options. If you feel like tackling some more risk with somewhat higher possible reward out of the money options can be a good option.

So let us check each of them separately. An in the money stock options is an option that has some intrinsic value in it. As an example, we come across a stock trading at $42 and are expecting it to go up to $50.

 

The $35 call would give us the authority to purchase the stock at $35 on or before a given date. If we were to buy the $35 call it may be considered an in the cash option as it already has $7 of intrinsic value. Unless this stock drops very far in the short term for it to be below our strike price of $35 we wouldn’t lose our entire investment.

Also if the stock goes up at all the option will be profitable, as long as things like time value and volatility do not work against you. And if it increases far enough the option will be profitable despite those other reasons.

Out of the money options are a little different. They have a little higher risk, but also give you a higher possible reward. Let’s take the same stock trading at $42; we still are expecting it to come up to around the $50 level.

This period we purchase the $45 see it. Because our call has a strike price above the price of the stock it has no intrinsic value. Instead the stock needs to surface with us to make any profit.

If the stock closes below $45 by expiration we would most likely lose 100% of our investment, making it very risky. Nonetheless if the stock does what we’re expecting it to do the position would be much more profitable than either buying the stock, or buying an in the cash option.

So which strategy is for you? It depends how risky you would like to be, or even if you would like to get into option trading. Options can be very profitable, but you need to consider all factors before jumping in.

 

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Trading Out-Of-The-Money Options

 

Here is an options trading plan based on out-of-the money. Trading out-of-the-money options is a good way to grow your portfolio with less cost involved. The trade can last from a few days to a month or two.

Entry signal

Determine the direction of the trend. Is it trending up or is it trending down?

Buy calls if trending up, or buy puts if trending down.

Best time to go in is after a 1-2 day pull back.

A good time to enter is just prior to market close. (If stock is in upper movement at close, it very likely to carry on overnight.)

 Exit Signal

On entry I always set my limit to $1.10. (.10 is to cover commissions.) After I am profitable by 50 cents, if profitable and the 30 minute charts or MACD look like they could be starting a pullback, I might consider exiting.

For stops I love to use a $1.00 below entry price. Although, I will adjust this for the stock. Higher dollar stocks with high volatility I will heighten the stop and lower dollar stocks with lower volatility I will decrease the stop.

Which options to choose

Expiration–I used to sell with at least 30 days till expiration. I now trade current month + 1. Other words, if your in the month of June, the earliest month I would take for expiration would be July.

Delta– I want to see a delta between 40 and 48 cents. Anything more than 48 and you will miss the jump between out-of-the-money and at-the-money. Below .40 works but you will most likely have to wait longer for your profits. (Remember for every $1 movement of the stock, your alternative will only move approximately the quantity of the delta.)

Price–I want my ask price to be under $10.00. Sometimes will go as high as $12.50 per option. Actually prefer options under $5.00. Yes, they’re there.

Open Interest–I look for an option that has the highest open interest for the schedule that I am looking at. Has to be over 100.

You can begin off small and watch your bank account grow bit-by-bit. A $50 profit done over and over grows quite rapidly and may be down with as little as a $500 investment.

 

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Options Trading Using the Q’s

My friend has been trading options online buying the Qs (QQQQ) for sometime and here’s his trade plan. Trading the Qs is a long way to grow your portfolio without a large expense of capital and may be traded as a day trade (1 day) or swing trade (2-5 days). You can make longer trades but you need to be cautious thanks to market volatility.

 

Entry

 

Establish the direction of the trend. Is it up or is it down?

Buy calls if trending up, or buy puts if trending down.

Best time to enter is after a 1-2 day pull back.

Try to purchase at least 20 contracts. (10 or less will work against, but your return is much less.)

If the Nasdaq has had a big pull back after initial entry, he will add to his position. Delay until the momentum has returned to the original trend direction before adding any more. You don’t want to be caught in a market reversal.

 

Exit

 

On entry he always sets his limit to 50 cents. After he is profitable by 15 cents, if the market is not moving or is pulling back, he will consider exiting.

he will use a stop of 50% of entry price. Try to get out much sooner though, observe the charts. They will normally let you know.

 

Which Option

Expiration–he used to sell with at least 20 days till expiration. He now trades current month + 1. Other words, if your in the month of June, the earliest month he would take for expiration would be July. Delta– he must see a delta between 70 and 95 cents. Anything above 95 and you are just throwing money away. Under .70 and the Qs have to make a bigger movement before your limit is reached. You can likewise lower the limit or choose a longer duration.

Price–he is looking for the ask price to be under $5.00.

Open Interest–he searches for an option that has the highest open interest under 5.00.

 

He has been buying options online trading the Qs and it has been one of his biggest money makers. He started off buying much smaller positions until the account grew big enough to support the larger trades. Extra time I discovered the above used to work best for me. One word of caution, if a trade starts going against you, GET OUT OF IT. Last year he didn’t, and took a big hit. Even with the hit he took last year (lost his discipline) he still trade the Qs on a daily basis and expect to continue.

 

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